How big of a threat is Belarus? | The Economist

Belarus has been accused of sabotage because of these balloons They're smuggling cigarettes into eastern Europe, but their quantity and timing suggest they could be a hybrid attack intended to disrupt avaiation sanctioned by Vladimir Putin's ally, Alexander Lukashenko So how big of a threat is Belarus?

Putin used Belarus to launch his attack on Kyiv in 2022 Since then Lukashenko has avoided sending troops to Ukraine But he is helping Putin's war in other ways Belarusian companies have doubled their exports of weapons components to arms manufacturers in Russia And there's growing co-operation

between the two countries’ militaries In research conducted for The Economist, Molfar Intelligence tracked phones linked to suspected Russian military personnel They've detected high activity moving between Russian military bases and Belarus In May 2026 Belarusian missiles took part in nuclear drills

alongside the Russian army And Putin has announced the deployment of nuclear weapons to his neighbour Russian influence over Belarus grew after 2020, when hundreds of thousands of Belarusians took to the streets to protest for democracy Lukashenko responded with a violent crackdown and turned to Putin for help

Russia will provide Belarus at this hard time with a state loan Aided by Putin, Lukashenko has held onto power But, since then, Russian influence over Belarus has intensified Belarusian state media has started repeating Russian narratives about the war in Ukraine Put simply, NATO’s advance toward Russia’s borders

via Ukraine was precisely what triggered Moscow’s military response —and the threat from the West How does it differ from Hitler's coalition?

Not at all The regime's crackdown on democratic opposition has extended to any displays of Belarusian national identity Prisoners disappear into the regime's vast system of penal colonies and detention centres, where there is evidence of widespread torture Lukashenko's closeness to Putin makes Belarus

a security risk to its neighbours in eastern Europe It's not just smuggling balloons The regime has also forced migrants over its borders and conducted cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns But recently Lukashenko has started to re-engage with the West Donald Trump's envoy brokered an agreement

securing the release of 250 Belarusian political prisoners in exchange for sanctions relief Meanwhile Ukrainian deep strikes on oil refineries have caused a petrol crisis in Russia and led to sales of Belarusian petrol nearly doubling Lukashenko is still dependent on Russia but a weakened Putin may be growing

more dependent on Belarus